Public Datasets & Transparency
Fully Open, Blinded Datasets — Scored by GPT + Grok + Gemini Ensemble. Download anything.
50
Series (43 distinct societies)
3–5
AI scorers per series (ensemble)
5 CE – 2026
Time span covered
33 datasets fully validated (Stress-column pass) · 8 further datasets undergoing quality review
Validation results
75–90%
Ensemble hindcast accuracy across tested societies
r = −0.958
Entropy–health correlation in validated datasets
50
Historical series across 43 societies, 5 CE–2026
r = 0.78
Seshat cross-validation, Latium/Rome (Apr 2026)
Methodology — how the scores are produced:
1. Blinding. Each node is scored using only information available in that historical moment — the scorer assesses function at that year without reference to what came next. Scorers are trained on historical text that may implicitly contain outcome information; this limitation is acknowledged openly in the methodology documentation.
2. Triple-AI scoring. GPT-4, Grok, and Gemini each independently assign 1–10 values for Coherence, Capacity, Stress, and Abstraction per node per time-step.
3. Ensemble average. The three scores are averaged to produce the final CAMS matrix.
4. Validation. Ensemble reliability (r > 0.7 across models) and inter-rater agreement are documented in the repository:
DATASET_VALIDATION_SUMMARY.md,
CAMS_Validation_Formulation.md.
Formal validation of the ensemble approach: The Wright Thesis — that ensemble variance reduces by exactly 1/√N and SNR improves by √5 — has been confirmed against CAMS Germany and USA data (1880–2026). Crucially, inter-rater disagreement is structured and historiographically meaningful, not random noise.
Ensemble Validation Report →
All datasets are in the public GitHub repository under data/cleaned/. No login required.
Browse all datasets on GitHub
Full datasets index (DATASETS_INDEX.md)
New Datasets — May 2026 · cam5 Extension Series
19 nations now have matched ensemble mean + envelope pairs. Added May–June 2026: Colombia (1875–2026 annual), USA (1900–2026 5-yr), Türkiye (1875–2026 5-yr), India (1875–2026 5-yr), Japan (1875–2026 5-yr), and Australia envelope. Earlier additions: Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, UK, Germany, Norway, Poland, Russia, Sweden, Iran, China, Thailand. New series in data/nations/; earlier series in cleaned_datasets/.
Americas
Colombia — Ensemble Mean
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Colombia — Envelope
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
United States — Ensemble Mean
1900–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · 5-year snapshots · with Node Value & Bond Strength
United States — Envelope
1900–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Argentina — Ensemble Mean
1950–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Argentina — Envelope
1950–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year
Argentina
1950–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · raw scores (C, K, S, A)
Canada — Ensemble Mean
1850–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Canada — Envelope
1850–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year
Chile — Ensemble Mean
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Chile — Envelope
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Europe
France — Ensemble Mean
1850–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
France — Envelope
1850–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
United Kingdom — Ensemble Mean
1880–2026 · CAMNations5 · with Node Value & Bond Strength
United Kingdom — Envelope
1880–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Germany — Ensemble Mean
1880–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Germany — Envelope
1880–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Norway — Ensemble Mean
1880–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Norway — Envelope
1880–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Poland — Ensemble Mean
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Poland — Envelope
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Russia — Ensemble Mean
1800–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Russia — Envelope
1800–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Sweden — Ensemble Mean
1880–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Sweden — Envelope
1850–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Türkiye — Ensemble Mean
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · 5-year snapshots · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Türkiye — Envelope
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Middle East
Iran — Ensemble Mean
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Iran — Envelope
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Asia-Pacific
Australia — Ensemble Mean
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Australia — Envelope
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
India — Ensemble Mean
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · 5-year snapshots · with Node Value & Bond Strength
India — Envelope
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Japan — Ensemble Mean
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · 5-year snapshots · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Japan — Envelope
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
China — Ensemble Mean
1800–2025 · CAMNations5 · with Node Value & Bond Strength
China — Envelope
1800–2025 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
China — Block2 Envelope
1800–2025 · CAMNations5 Block2 · SD + V_range · V_min · V_max
China — Envelope (1850–2026)
1850–2026 · inter-rater SD · extended series · with V_range
China — Extended Ensemble
1850–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · extended series
Thailand — Ensemble Mean
1850–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
Thailand — Envelope
1850–2025 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
Ancient & Pre-Modern
Latium Vetus — Ensemble Mean
460–2010 · Multi-Agent Ensemble · Roman institutional history
Latium Vetus — Envelope
460–2010 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
New Datasets — May 2026 · 22 Societies
22 new single-scorer and ensemble datasets added May 2026, now powering the CAMS Historical Telescope (32 societies) and fully integrated into the CAMS Explorer, CAMS Interpreter, and Zeitgeist Detector. Canonical 8-node format throughout.
Western Europe
France
1785–2024 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Netherlands
1750–2024 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Denmark
1752–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Norway
1881–2025 · GEM scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
East Asia & Pacific
Japan
1850–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Hong Kong
1900–2015 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Singapore
1935–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Thailand
1850–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Indonesia
1941–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
South Asia
India
1950–2024 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Pakistan
1947–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Middle East & North Africa
Saudi Arabia
1918–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
UAE
1970–2026 · GEM scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Iran — Ensemble Mean
5-Agent Ensemble Mean · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Iran — Envelope
Inter-rater SD per node per year
Iran — Single-scorer (no BS)
1900–2025 · C, K, S, A, V · bond strength unavailable
Iraq
1900–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Israel
1946–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Lebanon
1943–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Syria
1893–2024 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Eurasia
Ukraine
1980–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Americas & Africa
Venezuela
1970–2025 · GEM scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Brazil
1880–2025 · Grok scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
South Africa
1880–2025 · GEM scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
JUNO 1.0 — Bond Strength Formalism
What JUNO-1.0 is: A scale-invariant bond formalism that replaces the legacy CAMS v3.2 bond formula
with a normalised alternative. Where CAMS v3.2 bonds can range up to ~64, JUNO-1.0 bonds are constrained to [0, 1],
making cross-society and cross-era comparisons directly meaningful.
Formula: Bij = √(qi · qj) · 2−(Si+Sj)/10
where qi = (0.6·C + 0.4·A) / 10
Λ (coordination index): B̄(t) / B̄0 — the system bond density at year t divided by the
society’s 90th-percentile historical SBD. Scale-invariant; comparable across all 36 societies.
Concordance with CAMS v3.2: Spearman ρ = 0.95 (SBD) and ρ = 0.95 (per-bond) across all 36 societies —
the two formalisms agree on structural ordering while JUNO-1.0 provides a bounded, interpretable scale.
36
Societies covered
by JUNO-1.0
[0, 1]
Bond strength range
(normalised)
ρ = 0.95
Concordance with
CAMS v3.2
301 KB
Pre-computed site JSON
(all 36 societies)
Pre-computed outputs
juno_full.json — All 36 societies
JUNO-1.0 · Node Value, Bond Strength, B₀, Λ trends · Ready for site toggle · 301 KB
JUNO_all_countries.csv — Raw scores
36 societies · 32,361 rows · 20 CE–2026 · C, K, S, A per node per year · JUNO input format
juno_backcalc.py — Pipeline script
Computes JUNO-1.0 + CAMS-v3.2 node metrics, bond matrix, concordance · CLI tool · Python 3.10+
The JUNO formalism toggle is live in
CAMS Historical Telescope.
GitHub Action update_juno_data.yml auto-regenerates juno_full.json
whenever ENS source files or pipeline scripts change.
See generate_site_json.py
for the full schema specification.
JUNO Blind Test Dataset — June 2026
A held-out inference challenge built on the full JUNO-1.0 corpus. Society identities are replaced with anonymous labels
(Society_A – Society_H); time is expressed as an offset (T+0 – T+226) relative to each society’s
internal baseline. All four CAMS primary metrics (C, K, S, A) are present alongside the pre-computed JUNO-1.0 derived
quantities — so the dataset can be used either as a scoring target or as a diagnostic benchmark without re-running
the pipeline. Researchers can attempt to identify the societies from structural signatures alone before consulting the
answer key (to be published separately).
8
Anonymised societies (A–H)
227
Time steps per society (T+0 – T+226)
JUNO 1.0
Bond formalism · pre-computed
Schema
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|
Society_ID | string | Anonymised label — Society_A through Society_H |
T_Offset | string | Time step relative to internal baseline (T+0, T+1, …, T+226) |
Node | string | One of the 8 CAMS nodes (Archive, Craft, Flow, Hands, Helm, Lore, Shield, Stewards) |
Coherence | float 1–10 | Internal node alignment |
Capacity | float 1–10 | Resources and effectiveness |
Stress | float 1–10 | Accumulated pressure and dysfunction |
Abstraction | float 1–10 | Symbolic and conceptual reach |
Node_Value_Calc | float | JUNO-1.0 node value σ = A·C·(K−S) |
Bond_Strength_Calc | float [0,1] | JUNO-1.0 normalised bond strength Bij |
Lambda2_Calc | float | Λ coordination index — SBD / SBD90th |
V_Mean_Calc | float | Mean node value across all nodes at this time step |
V_Min_Calc | float | Minimum node value at this time step |
Series A
JUNO_Blind_Test.csv
8 anonymised societies (A–H) · T+0–T+226 · 9,608 rows · JUNO-1.0 derived metrics included · 621 KB · June 2026
Series B
JUNO_Blind_Test_B.csv
7 anonymised societies (A–G) · T+0–T+226 · 8,992 rows · JUNO-1.0 derived metrics included · 582 KB · June 2026
JUNO_Inflection_Points_B.csv
197 rows · detected V_Mean trajectory inflection points per society · columns: Society_ID, T_Offset, V_Mean_Calc, V_Min_Calc, V_Mean_Delta · 8 KB · June 2026
JUNO_Answer_Key_B.csv
1,124 rows · reveals real society identities, calendar years, and CAMS v1 regime classifications · columns: Society, Year, T_Offset, Society_ID, V_Mean_Calc, V_Min_Calc, CAMS_v1_Regime, Regime_Label_Calc · 80 KB · June 2026
All Datasets — 76 files · 62,871 records
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CSV Schema
Every dataset follows the same column structure — directly loadable into the CAMS Dashboard, Python scripts, or any data tool.
| Column |
Type |
Description |
Society | string | Society or organisation name |
Year | integer | Year of observation |
Node | string | One of the 8 institutional nodes (Lore, Archive, Helm, Stewards, Shield, Craft, Hands, Flow) |
Coherence | float 1–10 | Internal alignment of the node |
Capacity | float 1–10 | Resources and effectiveness |
Stress | float 1–10 | Accumulated pressure and dysfunction |
Abstraction | float 1–10 | Symbolic sophistication and long-range planning |
Node Value | float | Derived: C + K + (A/2) − S |
Bond Strength | float 0–1 | Derived: coupling with adjacent node |
